On August 20, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on uncoated paper imported from China. Earlier this year, the US Department of Commerce announced the preliminary findings of the anti-subsidy investigation on coated paper in China. Once the news was released, it aroused great concern in China's paper industry. With the advent of a period of frequent trade frictions, how Chinese paper companies should face the increasingly severe international trade environment has become a topic of concern in the industry.

According to the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook, starting from 2009, China's paper and paper product import and export trade volume has turned from a deficit to a surplus, and this momentum has continued to grow. In 1993, the trade deficit of China's paper and paper products was 1.211 billion US dollars, while the trade surplus in 2013 was as high as 9.858 billion US dollars. Although the trade surplus indicates that China's papermaking industry has increased its international competitiveness and is in a favorable position in international trade, the persistent and excessive trade surplus has also released some dangerous signals.

Zhang Zhiguang, a professor and doctoral supervisor at Nanjing Forestry University who has been engaged in research on economic management of papermaking companies for many years, said: "This aspect shows that the domestic papermaking industry in China has insufficient domestic market demand and a high degree of external dependence; on the other hand, it is also an international trade protectionist force. It provides an excuse for anti-dumping and countervailing, which in turn increases the operating risks of China's paper industry. "

Chinese paper companies have been repeatedly investigated for "double anti-reflection" over the years. The three major trade remedy measures stipulated by the WTO are a double-edged sword, which can be used to maintain a fair competition order in international free trade, and can also provide legitimate excuses and means for trade protectionism to curb the healthy development of free trade.

So what impact will the increasingly frequent international trade frictions have on Chinese companies and even the Chinese paper industry?

According to statistics, the pressure on China's paper industry trade friction mainly comes from the United States. From the perspective of products, China's main products subject to investigations such as "double-reverse" include coated paper, printing paper, writing paper, printing paper, copy paper and toilet paper, including coated paper and uncoated paper. There have been three investigations specifically directed to uncoated paper, and the negative impact of the United States' "double-reverse" investigation on uncoated paper in China this year has attracted even more attention. Uncoated paper is one of China's main export products. In 2014, it accounted for about 1/6 of the total export value of China's paper industry, and the United States was the main market for China's uncoated paper exports.

Professor Zhang Zhiguang believes that events such as "double anti-reflection" will have four impacts on the Chinese paper industry:

First, there will be a chain reaction. Other countries will follow the example of the United States and spread the negative effects, which may even lead to the embarrassing situation of Chinese paper companies.

Second, weaken the price advantage of Chinese paper products. Paying anti-subsidy and anti-dumping duties, responding to the "double anti-dumping" and other investigations will greatly increase the operating costs of China's papermaking enterprises, seriously weaken the original price advantage of our paper products, and then reduce sales in foreign markets. This will cause a serious and even fatal blow to Chinese companies that rely on exports, especially the US market.

Third, weaken the international competitiveness of China's paper industry. The United States and other countries launched investigations such as "double anti-countermeasures" will curb China's paper industry's export and reduce the market share of China's paper products in the United States and other countries. The resulting chain reaction will also weaken the competitiveness of China's paper industry in the international market.

Fourth, intensify trade frictions and undermine the international free trade order. Actions by the United States and other countries on China ’s papermaking industry ’s “double counteraction” will surely make Chinese companies and the government have a long way to go, and actively respond on the one hand, and strive to reason; Fight back. Such bilateral and multilateral trade remedy measures may form mutually negative “negative feedback” and play a positive role in maintaining the international economic and trade order; however, they may also form reciprocal “positive feedback”, triggering a trade war and thus destroy Free trade atmosphere.

Zhang Zhiguang said that the effects of investigations such as "double anti-countermeasures" are not all negative, but also have some positive effects, which can provide some new development opportunities for Chinese paper companies. For example, it is conducive to promoting Chinese enterprises to change their traditional low-cost strategic thinking, using scientific and technological innovation and advanced equipment to improve product quality and technological content, reduce environmental pollution, and improve the technical level and income level of labor. At the same time, it can also enable the government to work hard on the management level, further improve the subsidy policy, and promote the improvement of enterprises' own market competitiveness.